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Online
Poker odds calculator.
Expected
Value
How
are excellent poker players are able to
consistently win at the table?
They
win because they understand the concept of
expected value, and use this knowledge to
make smart plays.
Players
who play each hand based on expected value
will generally win money in the long run,
even if they do occasionally lose money in
the short term.
Expected
value can be thought of your projected
return on any given bet.
It
takes into account the size of the bet you
make, as well as the probability that you
will win or lose the hand.
If
your expected value is a positive number,
this indicates that you will win money in
the long run.
Negative
expected values, by contrast, indicate that
such a wager will cost you money in the long
run.
Keep
in mind that we are looking at the big
picture – long term wins or losses.
Any poker player can win or lose
money in the short run, since there is a
sizeable element of “luck of the draw”
with each hand played.
The
important thing is the consistency of a
player’s performance.
To
illustrate expected value, consider the
following example.
Example:
Your
hand:
The
flop:
There are a total of five
people in the pot (including yourself), and
you are the first person to bet in the small
blind position.
( Click here for Texas
holdem positions table
to refresh your memory of the various
positions.)
You put in your bet and
check, and the big blind tosses in his bet.
Everyone else in the pot calls.
What should you do?
In the case, you would be
smart to raise.
You already have four
hearts and need only one more to draw a
flush.
The odds of the turn or river turning
up another heart are good at approximately
35%, and a flush is a solid hand that will
likely beat out the rest of the pot.
If you raise and everyone else calls
you, you will have only contributed 20% of
the pot, in addition to your initial small
blind bet (which is unavoidable).
Not taking the blinds into
account, if you are playing a $10 / $20
game, the expected value of the pot is $50.
So you have a 35% of winning $50 and
a 65% chance of losing $10, your wager to
stay in the game.
Expected value = Chance of
winning (Total pot – Wager) – Chance of
losing (Wager)
Expected value = .35(50 -
10) - .65 (10) = $7.50
Since the expected value
for this hand is +$7.50, you can expect to
win an average of $7.50 per hand over the
long run with these cards.
In truth, you will never
actually win $7.50.
You will either win $50 or lose $10
on each hand.
However, taken as a whole over a
period of time, your winnings will average
out to the expected value of the hand.
Therefore playing this
same hand ten times would net you $75 on
average, while playing the hand 1000 would
leave you with $7500 in winnings in the long
run if you followed the expected value
theory.
Had the situation been
different and resulted in a negative
expected value, you would stand to lose an
average of that value per hand in the long
run.
This example is, of
course, a generalization. Other hands exist that could beat out your flush, even if a
heart was drawn on the turn or river.
Consider the following example:
Opponent A:
In
this case, your opponent has drawn a full
house to beat you out and take the pot.
Another situation arises
if the turn or river flips an Ace or an
eight to give you a pair.
A lucky draw of a nine and either a
seven or a Queen would land you a straight
(or a straight flush if they happened to be
hearts).
There are several ways that this hand
could turn out.
The example, therefore,
above deals strictly with the probability of
winning with a flush draw.
The alternate scenarios
mentioned are not taken into account.
However limited, though, this example
does provide you with an overview of how
expected value works and illustrate how this
theory can assist you in strengthening your
Texas Holdem game.
Players who take advantage
of this theory and use it to play only those
hands that result in a positive expected
value, should find that they become
consistent winners over time.
Next: Major
online poker mistakes and how to avoid them
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